America’s Roundup: Dollar edges higher on strong data, despite lower yields,Wall Street gains, Oil edges up to fresh 4-week highs as demand outlook improves-April 16th,2021

Posted at 15 April 2021 / Categories Market Roundups

Market Roundup

•U.S. Jobless claims fall, retail sales rebound

• Brazilian Feb Service Sector Growth (YoY) -2.0%,  -3.5% forecast, -4.7% previous

• US March Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM)  8.2%,-3.3% previous

• US Apr Philly Fed Business Conditions 66.6, 61.6 previous

• US March Retail Control (MoM)  6.9%,6.3%, -3.5% previous

• US Apr Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 50.2,  42.0 forecast, 51.8 previous

• US March Core Retail Sales (MoM)  8.4%,5.0% forecast, -2.7% previous

• US March Retail Sales (MoM)  9.8%, 5.9% forecast, -3.0% previous

• US Apr Philly Fed New Orders 36.0, 50.9 previous

• US Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid  69.10,75.90 previous

• US Apr Philly Fed Employment 30.8 ,  30.1 previous

• US Apr Philly Fed CAPEX Index               36.70,  35.90 previous

• US Mar Retail Sales (YoY)  28.16%, 6.87% previous

• US Apr NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 26.30, 19.50 forecast, 17.40 previous

• Canada Feb  Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -1.6%, -1.0%,3.1% previous

• Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change634.8K,-100.8K previous

• US Initial Jobless Claims 576K, 700K, 744K previous

• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg  683.00K,723.75K previous

• US Jobless Continuing Jobless Claims 3,731K, 3,700K forecast, 3,734K previous

• US Manufacturing Production (MoM) 2.7%,4.0% forecast,-3.1% previous

• US Mar Industrial Production (YoY) 1.02%,-4.25% previous

• US Mar Capacity Utilization Rate 74.4%,75.7%,73.8% previous

• US Mar Industrial Production (MoM)  1.4%,2.8% forecast,- 2.2% previous

• US Feb Retail Inventories Ex Auto 1.2%, 1.2% previous

• US Apr NAHB Housing Market Index 83 ,  83 forecast,- 82 previous

• US Feb Business Inventories (MoM) 0.5%,0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

•04:00 New Zealand March Business NZ PMI  53.4 previous

•04:30 Japan April Reuters Tankan Index  6 previous

•05:30 Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 22.9 previous

•07:30 China March House Prices (YoY)  4.3% previous

•07:30 Chinese Unemployment Rate 5.5% previous

•07:30 China Mar Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY)  33.78% previous

•07:30 China Mar Industrial Production YTD (YoY)  35.1% previous

•07:30 China April  Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI  72.69 previous

•07:30 China GDP (YoY) (Q1)  19.0% forecast, 6.5% previous

•07:30 China Mar Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)  25.0% forecast , 35.0% previous

•07:30 China Mar Industrial Production (YoY)  17.2% forecast , 35.1% previous

•07:30 China Mar Retail Sales (YoY)  28.0% forecast , 2.6% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•No significant events


EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Thursday in choppy trading as investors balanced bullish data showing U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in March against a continued drop in U.S. Treasury yields. Retail sales increased 9.8% last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, beating economists' expectations for a 5.9% increase. A separate report also showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 576,000 for the week ended April 10, compared with 769,000 in the prior week.The euro was down 0.09% to $1.1969. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1986 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2072 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1940(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1880 (23.6%fib).

GBP/USD: The sterling edged up on Thursday, but  struggled to regain momentum as market participants weighed indications of how UK’s lockdown-easing steps would affect the economic recovery. Sterling had a strong first quarter, helped by relief that a no-deal Brexit was avoided at the end of 2020, by the pace of the UK’s vaccine rollout and by a lessening of negative rates expectations.But it has had a weaker start to April, hurt by profit-taking, and has traded in a close range this week. At 19:10 GMT, the pound was at $1.3782, up 0.1% against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3809  (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3915(61.8%fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3748  (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3702(38.2%fib ).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher for a third straight day against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as equity markets rose and domestic data showed home sales setting a record high in March. Canadian home sales rose 5.2% in March from February, while a measure of home prices was up 20.1% year-over-year, amid strong demand in markets across the country. The loonie was last  trading 0.1% higher at 1.2513 to the greenback, having touched its strongest intraday level since March 22 at 1.2476. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2561(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2623 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2460 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2365(18th March low).

USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Thursday as Treasury yields pulled back from last month’s surge. The dollar has been on the back foot this month as Treasury yields stabilize below one-year highs reached last month. Yields have fallen as the U.S. Federal Reserve reiterates its commitment to holding rates near zero for years to come, and on some concerns that a recent uptick in inflation will be temporary. The greenback fell 0.15% to 109.73 Japanese yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.18(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.27 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.54(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 108.28(50%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks closed at a record high on Thursday as a rally in commodity prices lifted mining stocks and a slate of upbeat earnings reports offset worries about the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.41 percent.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes hit record highs on Thursday, as upbeat earnings reports from companies including Bank of America and BlackRock as well as a strong rebound in March retail sales bolstered hopes of a broader economic rebound.

Dow Jones closed down by  0.90% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.11% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.31%  percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields dived to one-month lows on Thursday as a possible safe-haven bid related to increased U.S.-Russia tensions, along with Japanese buying and technical factors, helped overshadow better-than-expected economic data.

The 10-year rate was last down 8.5 basis points at 1.5513%. Yields in the belly and long end of the curve also fell to their lowest levels in about a month.

Commodities Recap

Gold scaled a more than one-month peak on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields slipped despite better-than-expected U.S. economic data, pushing investors to bullion as a refuge against possible inflation ahead.

Spot gold  rose 1.8% to $1,766.50 per ounce by 1:49 p.m. EDT (1749 GMT), having earlier risen to $1,769.37, its highest since Feb. 26. U.S. gold futures settled 1.8% higher at $1,766.80.

Oil prices edged up to fresh four-week highs on Thursday on positive U.S. economic data and higher demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC as countries start to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Brent futures rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, on Thursday to settle at $66.94 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 31 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $63.46.

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